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Bank & Fintech Arbitrage

CD Early Withdrawal Penalty Arbitrage

Buy a long-duration CD when rates are high, break early when rates fall — pay small EWP for large gain vs current rates.

Overview

Fixed CD rates are locked; if rates fall after purchase, break the CD (paying an Early Withdrawal Penalty typically 3–12 months' interest) and redeploy at whatever is now available. Math: if you bought a 5-yr CD at 5.5% and rates fall to 3.5% after 12 months, breaking with 6-month EWP costs $2,750 on $100K but saves $8K over the remaining 4 years. Look for CDs with LOW EWPs (Ally 60 days on <2yr, 150 days on longer; Marcus 90 days). Especially powerful in an inverted yield curve.

Best fit
CD investors in falling-rate environmentsPeak-of-cycle rate lockFixed-income strategists
Estimated impact
$1K–$5K per $100K per rate cycle

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